Smallstation's Election 2012 watch thread

alsoRun · 发表于 2012-11-1 21:55:00

Any prediction and new poll result can be posted here. More importantly, we can chat here while watching election returns starting from 7.00 pm next Tuesday, the election night.

alsoRun · 发表于 2012-11-1 21:57:40

本帖最后由 alsoRun 于 2012-11-1 10:58 PM 编辑

Both Politico.com and Realclearpolitics.com have Obama at 290 electoral votes.

SevenStar · 发表于 2012-11-1 22:28:50

咱当一回保守派：奥巴马277票。

日暮苍山 · 发表于 2012-11-1 23:29:36

本帖最后由日暮苍山于 2012-11-2 12:29 AM 编辑

押注吗？

SevenStar · 发表于 2012-11-2 21:10:48

马骝 · 发表于 2012-11-2 22:35:37

我唯恐天下不乱，O8马和糯米各得269票。

然后众院选出糯米为总统，参院选出白等为副总统，what a mess！

昨夜雨 · 发表于 2012-11-3 11:16:20

回复日暮苍山的帖子

想押注的话，可以参考Unibet公布的目前赔率。

alsoRun · 发表于 2012-11-3 11:40:26

回复昨夜雨的帖子

昨夜雨, how do we interpret this table?

昨夜雨 · 发表于 2012-11-3 12:51:15

回复 alsoRun 的帖子

Obama's winning is likely, but not surely.

昨夜雨 · 发表于 2012-11-5 21:48:01

Unibet目前的赔率是：Barack Obama: 1.20 Mitt Romney: 4.00

漫人 · 发表于 2012-11-5 22:43:29

还是熬8赢面大，真能熬到8年？

alsoRun · 发表于 2012-11-6 18:23:42

本帖最后由 alsoRun 于 2012-11-6 06:25 PM 编辑

Exit polls 2012: Mitt Romney favors rich

Forty-three percent of those surveyed said Obama’s policies favor the middle class, compared with 10 percent who said they favor the rich, and 31 percent who said his policies favor the poor.

For Romney, those numbers were flipped: 36 percent said his policies would favor the middle class, compared with 52 percent who said they’d favor the rich and just 2 percent who said Romney’s policies would favor the poor.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/sto ... .html#ixzz2BUJa0ADS

alsoRun · 发表于 2012-11-6 18:56:57

North Carolina exit pool:
OBAMA'S JOB: About one in four voters said they were enthusiastic about Obama's administration, and about one in four said they were satisfied with the president. About three in 10 voters said they were dissatisfied and two in 10 said they were angry with the president.

alsoRun · 发表于 2012-11-6 19:18:11

FL looks so red and VA looks so blue with <1% reporting.

alsoRun · 发表于 2012-11-6 19:28:50

1.2% reporting, Virginia turned red 58%, bad sign.

alsoRun · 发表于 2012-11-6 19:46:14

本帖最后由 alsoRun 于 2012-11-6 07:51 PM 编辑

It seems that Virginia have turned red with 4% reporting..
Breath-taking.

AprilFool · 发表于 2012-11-6 19:51:48

FL: Obama 50%, Romney 49%

VA: Obama 41%, Romney 57%

OH: Obama 37%, Romney 61%

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/main?hpt=elec_flippertkr

alsoRun · 发表于 2012-11-6 19:53:12

These results are also a big test of these pollsters.

alsoRun · 发表于 2012-11-6 19:54:43

本帖最后由 alsoRun 于 2012-11-6 07:56 PM 编辑

Florida, 36% reported, Obama 52%.
North Carolina, 15% reported, Obama 52%

马骝 · 发表于 2012-11-6 20:07:27

目前有洗安安预测结果的州还没有意外，红是红，蓝是蓝。

alsoRun · 发表于 2012-11-6 20:19:20

The biggest surprise is Virginia, which turns out so red.

AprilFool · 发表于 2012-11-6 20:25:47

看样子Romney要赢。

马骝 · 发表于 2012-11-6 20:37:05

AprilFool 发表于 2012-11-6 08:25 PM
看样子Romney要赢。

淡定，刚才是点富人区的票。

马骝 · 发表于 2012-11-6 20:40:43

洗安安选举网页荡了。

AprilFool · 发表于 2012-11-6 20:59:06

马骝发表于 2012-11-6 08:37 PM
淡定，刚才是点富人区的票。

Ohio怎么又变蓝了？难道是我刚才看错了？

马骝 · 发表于 2012-11-6 21:08:22

回复 AprilFool 的帖子

开票到现在，Ohio蓝色领先，统计了28%，蓝55%，红44%.

依然发哥那里咬得很紧，统计了73%，蓝50%，红49%。

AprilFool · 发表于 2012-11-6 21:14:46

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哦，那就好。我刚才大概是看错了。

VA没希望了。看来今年决定胜负的州又是佛罗里达。

马骝 · 发表于 2012-11-6 21:16:13

佛州开票到78%，红领先不到2百张票（开了将近6百80万张票）！！！

alsoRun · 发表于 2012-11-6 21:19:36

Home state of PA called for Obama.

马骝 · 发表于 2012-11-6 21:27:22

佛州灰常灰常接近，估计没点到发哥那个投票点决不出胜负。

马骝 · 发表于 2012-11-6 21:34:14

好玩！佛州78%时红领先不到2百票，79%扩大到一万五左右，可是80%的时候蓝又返了过来，几千张票，到81%时，红又领先六百多张，一分钟前开到82%，蓝暂时领先1万4千多张。

AprilFool · 发表于 2012-11-6 21:36:50

马骝发表于 2012-11-6 09:16 PM
佛州开票到78%，红领先不到2百张票（开了将近6百80万张票）！！！

刚才佛州蓝了一下，一转眼就又红了，现在又蓝了。 Wow!

这段时间内双方票数相差一直不到1000票。如果最后结果双方票数相差还是在1000票以下，是不是又要手工重新数票了？以前佛州好象有这个规定。

AprilFool · 发表于 2012-11-6 21:40:01

现在双方相差10280票，Obama领先。

AprilFool · 发表于 2012-11-6 21:47:34

Virginia Est. 57% in:

Romney 51%

Obama 47%

昨夜雨 · 发表于 2012-11-6 21:51:49

本帖最后由昨夜雨于 2012-11-6 11:05 PM 编辑

CNN call: New Hampshire is the first battleground state that turns to Obama.

Projected number: Obama (237+4) vs Romney (206)

昨夜雨 · 发表于 2012-11-6 22:02:59

本帖最后由昨夜雨于 2012-11-6 11:05 PM 编辑

CNN call: Second battleground state: Wisconsin: Obama.

Projected number: Obama (237+4+10) vs Romney (206)

SevenStar · 发表于 2012-11-6 22:15:42

昨夜雨发表于 2012-11-6 10:02 PM
CNN call: Second battleground state: Wisconsin: Obama.

Projected number: Obama (237+4+10) vs Romney ...

威斯康星先蓝了。

只要饿还饿一蓝就结束了。

佛落里达还不一定送给糯蜜同志呢。

马骝 · 发表于 2012-11-6 22:16:32

本帖最后由马骝于 2012-11-6 10:23 PM 编辑

昨夜雨发表于 2012-11-6 10:02 PM
CNN call: Second battleground state: Wisconsin: Obama.

Projected number: Obama (237+4+10) vs Romney ...

果真？我看到的是红党在威州领先。

不过我觉得倒是可以宣布蓝党在佛州取胜了。从地图上看，在佛州绝大部分红色地带点票已经结束，而人口密集的蓝党票仓Miami-Dade地区只点了65%左右。

加上蓝党在Ohio和八姐那里都是领先，我想大家可以洗洗睡了，加上晚些时候西海岸的结果一出来，下一届总统还是O8马。

昨夜雨 · 发表于 2012-11-6 22:16:47

本帖最后由昨夜雨于 2012-11-6 11:20 PM 编辑

CBS Call: Third battleground state: Iowa: Obama （oops, not call yet, just "leaning"). Same as Ohio.

昨夜雨 · 发表于 2012-11-6 22:20:34

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西海岸的票没有悬念，已经算作237票(projected)里面了。

昨夜雨 · 发表于 2012-11-6 22:26:11

本帖最后由昨夜雨于 2012-11-6 11:26 PM 编辑

CBS Prediction:
Forth battleground state: Ohio: Obama (18)
fifth battleground state: Nevada: Obama (6).

------------
Three battleground states left to grap:
VA: 13
FL: 29
CO: 9

alsoRun · 发表于 2012-11-6 22:29:44

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So Obama has won!!!

昨夜雨 · 发表于 2012-11-6 22:34:10

回复 alsoRun 的帖子

Well, it is still projected as 251 vs 206. 270 is needed as the winner. Iowa (6), Ohio (18) and Nevada (6) are likely, but could not be counted as projection yet.

alsoRun · 发表于 2012-11-6 22:35:41

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Thanks. You are on top of these numbers.

昨夜雨 · 发表于 2012-11-6 23:17:31

CBS just calls that Obama will win Ohio and win the President (of Ohio of course).

alsoRun · 发表于 2012-11-6 23:21:24

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NBC also called for Obama.

alsoRun · 发表于 2012-11-6 23:36:15

Florida is still blue and Virginia has turned blue.

昨夜雨 · 发表于 2012-11-6 23:46:54

回复 alsoRun 的帖子

So far, AP, CNN also called for Obama, too. Although it is not final, the projection is probably unturnable now.

AprilFool · 发表于 2012-11-6 23:47:55

Wow! 现在再去看那张选举图，真是捷报频传哪！

昨夜雨 · 发表于 2012-11-6 23:54:16

本帖最后由昨夜雨于 2012-11-7 12:56 AM 编辑

CNN call: third, forth, and fifth battleground state: Iowa, Ohio, Nevada: Obama.

Projected number: Obama (237+4+10+6+18+6) vs Romney (206)

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